Bottom-Up Betting

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Bottom-Up Betting

Last week in our newsletter, we broke down what top-down betting is and why it works.

This week, we are going to break down the other side of the coin: bottom-up betting.

Both types of professional sports bettors are necessary in the betting ecosystem, each serving its own distinct role.

Bottom-up betting is a data-driven approach. Bettors who use this strategy focus on building their own numbers and using statistical models to identify market inefficiencies.

Unlike top-down bettors, who rely on market movements, bottom-up bettors originate their own lines and seek out mispriced odds.

The best betting tools enable bottom-up bettors to calculate edges based on their projections.

How do bottom-up bettors do it? Do I need to make a model? How does one do this?

Let’s dive in.

Why Bottom-Up Betting Works

Bottom-up betting is undoubtedly the more difficult way to bet.

Top-down bettors rely on bottom-up bettors for their earnings. Bottom-up bettors are the ones going to war with the sportsbooks, debating their pricing, and betting accordingly.

During the price discovery phase, which we discussed last week, bottom-up bettors are the ones who are placing limit bets right away and helping bookmakers shape the number.

Bottom-up bettors, unlike top-down bettors, care less about what sharp books are posting as their lines.

Why?

Because their thesis is that their odds are better than the sportsbooks, they are less concerned with checking the odds screen and betting accordingly.

They are the ones creating the movement, not reacting to it.

How Bottom-Up Betting Works:

• Modeling: Bottom-up bettors create models that are based on a myriad of factors, including, but not limited to, team stats, player performance, and historical data. These models help predict the likely outcome of a game or event and identify value bets.

• Finding Inefficiencies: Bottom-up bettors focus on identifying inefficiencies by comparing their numbers to those of the sportsbooks. If a bottom-up bettor believes their origination process is better than the sportsbooks, when the books are away from their number, they do not get scared; they bet.

• Building a Strategy: Bottom-up bettors’ strategy is less concerned with the market's movement and more with the limits. If an originator sees an edge on a prop but the limit is only $100, they may decide to wait, even if another pro may move the number before they can fire, so that they can get more down at a higher limit.

Bottom-up betting, also known as originating, is focused on creating predictive models that price events better than the sportsbooks.

If you are using a real-time odds tool and the number starts to move significantly, it’s likely because an originator has decided it’s time to fire. (Assuming no major injury or weather news just came in)

The grind is the same for these types of bettors, but different. While top-down bettors spend all day looking at the market, bottom-up bettors spend all day adjusting their models.

Their edge lies in their ability to price games accurately and incorporate information into their true line projections, which deviate from the market. Their own numbers are their source of truth, not other sportsbooks.

This approach is not for everyone, and it’s undoubtedly the more difficult of the two. However, if you are a more data-driven person and understand how to create models, this may be the right approach for you.

Let’s Get This Straight

Every week, we dissect a relevant sports betting topic to determine its validity.

Power Ratings vs Power Rankings

On the X timeline, you must have seen a lot of tweets from accounts ranking different NFL and College football teams.

Some label them as “Power Ratings,” while others are “Power Rankings.”

Here’s the reality:
Power ratings are for bettors, and power rankings are for content.

When you see an account rank the Chiefs as the 15th best team, it’s a clear sign this is content and not a bettor.

Power ratings rate teams based on where they believe they rank according to the market. These are how spreads are created.

The Chiefs may be “ranked” as the 15th best team, but are favored against the 10th.

Why? Because ratings-wise, the Chiefs are actually higher, and that’s how spreads are created.

Featured Tool Spotlight: Pick The Odds

Every week, we highlight one of our featured tools that helps our readers become better and more profitable sports bettors.

Pick The Odds is a world-class sports betting tool, and its arbitrage features are one of the best in the market. Its live betting is elite.

Read our full review of Pick The Odds.

What separates Pick the Odds from other live betting tools is its speed and the number of sportsbook options they have. Odds update as quickly as every 1.2 seconds, and Pick The Odds has 110+ sportsbooks on its platform.

The best part? It’s free to use. The free version of the tool comes with some limitations, but all features work as intended. You can find risk-free profit (capped at 2%) at 110+ sportsbooks.