Buying Picks vs. Projections

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Football Season is Here

The betting menu is about to go from manageable to crazy.

College Football kicks off tomorrow, and Week One of the NFL will be here in just two weeks. We are entering the best time of the year for sports bettors.

However, we are also entering the “everyone is an expert” season of sports betting. Everyone has an opinion on football. Not a day will go by for the next 6 months on social media without the point spread of a game or futures odds being discussed.

While this can make for some good entertainment, and of course, there are some people discussing games and odds who are sharp, but football season is also every pick seller on X’s “best sport to handicap”.

How can this be? We know the NFL has the most variance of any sport, and the market is more efficient.

Exactly.

Picks vs. Projections

If there is one thing not to do this NFL season, it’s to consume information from the wrong sources.

Don’t get me wrong, you can learn something new from anyone. That’s life. Considering everyone’s perspective is unique to them, any conversation can lead to picking up a helpful nugget or two.

However, when it comes to the content you consume and the information you use to help you make your bets, whether it be tailing someone’s picks or using their data, there’s one thing you MUST do.

Evaluate the evaluator.

There’s been a debate for years on X about whether you should or should not buy picks. There are pick sellers who are undoubtedly scammers, but there are also pick sellers who sell more than just picks, but also provide information in the form of “sheets” - graphics with data on them. Some are great—some terrible.

Some of these sellers are obviously lifetime losing bettors and should be avoided at all costs. Sports betting tools with projections also exist, but not all of them track their projections.

So, who should you believe? What should you use to make more profit from sports betting this Fall?

Betting on football is difficult enough. Using the wrong data or tailing the wrong person’s picks will lead to more harm than good.

If the person you are thinking about buying picks from is spamming anytime touchdown parlays, lacking transparency, and betting NFL sides closer to close than open without new information hitting the market…

Avoid at all costs.

If the person you are thinking about buying data from, or even if you are just using their data to make your own picks, is using hit rate to justify their picks, does not track their data’s results, and never mentions the price with the projection…

Avoid at all costs.

Sure, there are absolutely some groups, services, or sellers that do it right. These individuals are rare. There are telltale signs.

Don’t be so trusting of everything you see. Even innocent-looking posts could be misleading and lead to you losing your bankroll for no reason.

There are sports betting tools to help you find risk-free arbitrage bets and +EV spots. Yes, this means you actually have to do the work, but one thing is for sure.

They give you a much higher chance of making money this football season.

Let’s Get This Straight

Every week, we dissect a relevant sports betting topic to determine its validity.

Should You Ever Buy Picks?

Despite what you see online, the NFL is one of the most challenging sports to beat, and not everyone is the expert they claim to be.

Here’s the reality:
There will always be corner cases, but generally speaking, it's best to avoid buying picks unless a few conditions are met.

When you buy picks, the cost of the service needs to be included in your ROI. The lines need to be available, and there needs to be transparency.

If these conditions are met, then there could be value in buying picks or using data.

Price rules everything. If what you are using to bet on games this football season helps you consistently beat the closing number, then you are making good bets, which, when gambling on the sport with the highest variance, is all you can do.

Featured Tool Spotlight: Pick The Odds

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Pick The Odds is a world-class sports betting tool, and its arbitrage features are one of the best in the market. It can help you pick up risk-free profit this NFL season.

Read our full review of Pick The Odds.

What separates Pick the Odds from other live betting tools is its speed and the number of sportsbook options they have. Odds update as quickly as every 1.2 seconds, and Pick The Odds has 110+ sportsbooks on its platform.

The best part? It’s free to use. The free version of the tool comes with some limitations, but all features work as intended. You can find risk-free profit (capped at 2%) at 110+ sportsbooks.

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