Dealing With Variance in the NFL

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Dealing with NFL Variance

Two editions ago, we wrote about how the NFL is the sport with the highest variance. It was a brief section, and since we received some questions and comments about it, it makes sense to dive into it deeper.

No, this is not going to be a math lesson proving this; that's already been done. What we aim to do is help you prepare to deal with it mentally over the course of the 18-week rollercoaster.

Any professional sports bettor will tell you. To maintain a betting edge, you need to retain your mental edge, and nothing can be more infuriating than bad beats, last-minute turnovers, poor clock management, and…variance.

Maintaining a Mental Edge

Let’s be honest. If you’re a football fan & bettor, whether recreational or sharp, you will be spending a significant amount of time on your couch/at your desk over the next five months.

We get it. How could you not? There’s football on TV, which means there is betting to do.

College Football kicked off last week, and in the first game between ranked teams, we already saw variance in action. If you had the over, you would be considering it your first bad beat of the year, and it was literally Week Zero.

Spoiler alert: You will have more bad beats this season.

Sports betting is a grind and can take a toll on your mental health. Betting psychology is crucial in sports betting. While it’s easy to get caught up in picking winners, the truth is that the most successful bettors focus on discipline, process, and strategic thinking rather than the results of individual bets.

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Discipline is the key to successful long-term betting, and it plays a more crucial role than simply picking winners. Especially when betting on CFB, you are betting on kids, whereas when betting on the NFL, you are betting in the most efficient markets with the most variance.

Stick to your plan, avoid chasing losses, track your bets, don’t bet based on emotion, and stay rational, even if you’re on a heater.

Casual bettors often bet on their favorite team or make decisions based on emotion. They may also place impulsive bets based on gut feelings rather than solid reasoning. Emotional betting can lead to irrational choices and long-term losses.

Generally, sharp bettors are better at maintaining a level head during hot and cold streaks. However, they are still human, too, and watching a running back fumble at the goal line during the two-minute drill to kill a bet will inevitably evoke negative emotions.

And in the NFL as well as college football, that will happen, and it will happen a lot.

So, how can you stay sharp during the season? It’s a tough time ever to take a break for fun, friends, and even family, but it’s crucial to do so.

Build a routine that includes sleep, some outlet, and some sort of physical exercise. When watching games, opt for a healthy snack instead of beer and bar food. For pros, work will always come first, but you will do better work if you’re balancing everything, even if most of your time is spent working this fall.

Never bet above your means and condition yourself to understand to your core that variance is all part of this beautiful game we play.

Let’s Get This Straight

Every week, we dissect a relevant sports betting topic to determine its validity.

Same Game Parlays Can Work

Same game parlays are known as the biggest suckers bet due to their high holds and the tax sportsbooks take on correlation.

Here’s the reality:
When built properly, a same game parlay can be a great bet.

Sportsbooks push SGPs down novice bettors' throats, as they are generally terrible bets.

Negative correlation paralys are not a new thing, but they can lead to much bigger payouts and can be built correctly.

Don’t get us wrong, these bet types should mostly be avoided. However, if you are building one, even if it’s for fun, make sure to mix in some unders with your overs.

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