Finding Expected Value for Profit

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Expected Value Betting

Expected value (EV) is the basis of profitable sports betting. It is what defines a “good” bet from a “bad” bet.

EV is frequently discussed, especially on gambling X, with new EV-branded accounts appearing seemingly every day.

This edition is not going to be a math lesson, nor is it going to be a generic overview of this term that most sports bettors, especially lately, have had pushed down their throats.

For a general overview, we have plenty of information available here.

In our experience, what people fail to realize is that finding EV is not a one-size-fits-all proposition.

If your understanding of expected value is flawed from the outset, then EV seems like just a loose buzzword that people use to sound smart, rather than what it truly is: the path toward profitable sports betting.

Finding EV In Different Markets

Summed up, expected value is finding the difference between the ‘fair odds’ and the best odds available for you to bet at.

The math for calculating EV is static, but not all markets are created equally, and different sportsbooks are more efficient in different markets.

At this point, when it comes to game line markets, it’s public knowledge which sportsbooks are sharp and which are recreational.

The former sets limits, posts odds, takes bets, and adjusts numbers as needed. The latter follows those moves, keeps limits as a guessing game, and denies bets from customers they have whitelisted.

While it’s well known which books are sharp and which are rec, some rec books do a better job of pricing different markets than sharp books, meaning they can be labeled as “sharp”, but only for specific markets.

This is where EV betting becomes complicated, but also where sports bettors, with the right information, can capitalize.

By knowing which sportsbook is sharper in each market, bettors can use that information to their advantage.

One of the most common ways of finding EV is devigging. Devigging involves choosing a sportsbook, or a handful, as your source of truth for what the ‘fair’ odds of a bet should be.

There are four different devig methods, but let’s keep the concept simple for now.

By breaking it down more granularly, devigging by bet type is one of the best ways to get an edge.

For example, Pinnacle is a well-known sharp book for game lines, so if they are hanging the Mets at -150 close to first pitch and DraftKings has the Mets at -130, it’s safe to say betting the Mets at DK, using Circa as your devig book, is good process, and you are making a good bet.

That said, when it comes to different markets, like NBA player props, the source of truth is not the same. As sharp as Pinnacle has proven to be for game lines, their NBA prop lines are not.

It’s easier said than done, but it behooves sports bettors to figure out which sportsbooks are sharper in each market so you can devig from the right sportsbook, find a better calculation for the ‘fair’ odds, and put yourself in the best position to profit in the long run.

Let’s Get This Straight

Every week, we dissect a relevant sports betting topic to determine its validity.

You Can’t Win Long-Term Without Understanding EV

Many sports bettors on X are uninformed.

People constantly post bet slips that are based on vibes and not on math.

But here’s the reality:
While a bad bet might win, that does not make it a good bet, and that does not put you on the path to long-term profitability.

The key to long-term success is to consistently outperform the market by placing bets with a positive expected value.

If your favorite sports betting personality tells you otherwise, you need to reevaluate where you get advice from

Featured Tool Spotlight: Pick The Odds

Every week, we highlight one of our featured tools that are making our readers better and more profitable sports bettors.

Pick The Odds is a world-class sports betting tool, and its expected value features are one of the best in the market.

Read our full review of Pick The Odds.

What separates Pick the Odds from other +EV tools is that they power in the user’s hands. With advanced customization filters that you set, you can make sure your +EV calculations are derived from your assessment of different markets and sportsbooks.

If you think sportsbook A is sharper in MLB home run props than sportsbooks B, but less sharp in WNBA game lines than sportsbooks C, you can set up your EV calcs so sportsbook A is your source of truth for home run props, and sportsbook C is your source of truth for WNBA game lines.

The best part? It’s free to use. The free version of the tool comes with some limitations, but all features work as intended. You can build custom EV calculations, test them out, and continuously update them as new information becomes available.