How to Maximize Projections

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Sports Betting Projections

AI tools, coding languages, and Excel are used in all industries. Sports betting is no different. Using different technologies, you can quantify data and build projections.

Creating a model that consistently outperforms the market is a challenging task. It’s not for everyone. However, building a basic model or using a tool with projections will help you become a better sports bettor.

It’s easy to fall into the trap of wanting to bet with your gut. Sure, there could be data supporting why you like a player to do well or underperform, but without ever quantifying it, you are making a mistake.

Make sure to stick around to the end, where we break down what to look for in projection sets.

Price & Projections

Rule No. 1 in sports betting is that price rules everything. Whether or not a bet is worth making should always depend on how big you believe the discrepancy between the listed odds and the fair odds is.

Understanding price and building projections go hand in hand. You can project LeBron James to have 5.8 assists, and his line can be set at O/U 5.5 -150, so the implied probability is 59.84%. Yes, you project over the number, but given the price, it may not be worth a bet.

Explore all sports betting tools with projections.

Some sports betting tools have projections as part of their functionality. This is an excellent feature that can help you with your own process.

Projections not only guide you in the right direction, but they can also be your source of truth…if the price is right.

Building a model isn’t easy, but math-based bets will maximize your profit in the long run. Using a tool as a baseline and even blending multiple tools’ projections together can help you find your source of truth.

No projection set should ever be the same. With numerous data points, statistical methodologies, weights, and more, there is an art behind the science of sports betting.

Let’s Get This Straight

Every week, we dissect a relevant sports betting topic to determine its validity.

What to Look for in Projections

Projections are a great starting point for sports betting. Advanced modeling is complex, but with some simple Excel or coding, you can get a model going.

However, that does not mean the model will consistently produce winning results.

Here’s the reality:
Every model is unique, and each has its distinct builds. No two models should be the same. It’s essential to understand the rationale behind a model, or at the very least, backtest and track it.

If it were easy to price events more accurately than the sportsbooks, we would not be having this conversation. Sportsbooks would not exist, and sports betting would not be a thing; we would look for other ways to make money.

A pro of creating your own model is that you know exactly what is going into it. When you see posts on X about model plays, without any other context, your first instinct should be to evaluate who is claiming to have the model.

If there is no indication of price, implied probability, EV, fair odds, or anything else that is more relevant than the "projection” spat out, odds are it’s not winning advice.

There’s a reason the casinos look like they do in Las Vegas, and there’s a reason online sportsbooks continue to set profit records. Evaluate the evaluator.

Just as good projections can help you maximize profitability, poor projections can light your bankroll on fire. Be cautious of red flags from “models” and “projections” on X, and if you encounter or build a model you want to use, track its results.

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Every week, we highlight one of our featured tools that are making our readers better and more profitable sports bettors.

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Props.Cash is a staple for betting on sports this summer. With data for the MLB and the WNBA, save yourself time and maximize your profitability with Props.Cash.

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