Player Prop Betting - Summer 2025

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Player Prop Betting

At this point, everyone is familiar with player props. Their popularity has skyrocketed; there are numerous markets, handle has increased, and they seem like a rec bettor’s dream.

New platforms are popping up left and right that emphasize betting on player props. A lot of this data is recycled and is surface-level.  

Make sure to stick around to the end, where we break down what to look for when betting player props.

It makes sense. It’s easy to understand and be enamored by hit rate data, matchup rankings, and batter vs. pitcher data (it’s baseball season, after all).

While this data looks (and can be) helpful, it does not tell the whole story. There are numerous factors involved in betting props, and digging deeper is essential.

Sample sizes are important, and every event is unique. There is no one way to calculate value, but it is essential to move past surface-level data, or you will be betting into -EV spots.

Advanced Player Prop Date

Hit rate can only get you so far. This is public data. You know it, and the sportsbooks know it.

To find an edge, you need to dig deeper. Not all situations are created equally. Just knowing how hot or cold a player is will not help you in the long run.

The deeper you dive, the more you find. To do so takes some critical thinking. How does a player perform at home vs. on the road? Are they good against this pitcher’s pitch mix? What is their pitch mix? Are they hitting the ball hard?

Once you begin to understand the nuances of player prop betting, especially in a sport like baseball, you will have a greater chance of success.

Factors to consider include batter splits, pitcher splits, the weather, plate appearances, umpires, bullpens… and the hit rate.

Price rules everything, and with so many prop bets offered every day, diving deeper can help you find mispriced lines, make +EV bets, and profit over the course of the season.

Let’s Get This Straight

Every week, we dissect a relevant sports betting topic to determine its validity.

Hit Rate is a Starting Point, But Not the End Point

As we mentioned earlier, hit rate can be helpful, but it does not paint the full picture.

People talk about “hit rates”, the same way they talk about players being “due”. Just because someone has done well recently does NOT mean they will continue to do so.

Here’s the reality:
What is more likely? A player to go on a 20-game hit streak, or for them to finally go 0-4 in a sport where succeeding 30% of the time gets you into the Hall of Fame?

Price rules everything. You can convert any line into an implied probability. You can also weigh these probabilities based on different markets and different sportsbooks, based on how sharp they are. (More on this in a future newsletter.)

In a sport where the best hitters get a hit every 3 out of 10 times they step to the plate, and with four plate appearances being the standard per game, you need to consider more than just the hit rate.

Add in the price, and betting on the hit market based solely on hit rate is a recipe to drain your bankroll quickly.

There is no such thing as being “due”; past results in sports are unique to the circumstances.

The next time you examine a player's hit rate, be sure to dig deeper, and you will find better spots to attack.

Featured Tool Spotlight: Props.Cash

Every week, we highlight one of our featured tools that are making our readers better and more profitable sports bettors.

Props.Cash is a player prop research tool that takes prop research to a deeper level. Yes, they have hit rate data, but they supplement it with advanced filters, deeper statistics, line shopping, and projections.

Read our full review of Props.Cash.

What separates Props.Cash from other prop tools is that it empowers users with its clean interface, detailed data, and projection model. Researching player props feels approachable, not overwhelming.

Other tools show you hit rate and some matchup data, and then call it a day. Props.Cash allows you to filter the data based on specific scenarios. Not to mention, their data is not surface-level. They have advanced data, all actionable, and all in one place.

During the dog days of Summer, Props.Cash has you covered with advanced MLB data that other research tools do not have. Stop focusing on hit rate, and use Props.Cash to dive deeper into every prop.

Use code BETSMART for 30% off your first month.