Must-Know Rule Changes for NFL Betting

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NFL Rule Changes

The NFL season began last night with the Eagles beating the Cowboys 24-20 in a game that was destined to cash the over…until it didn’t.

Pour one out for overs bettors - Game one of 272 stays under 48.5 despite 44 points being scored heading into the fourth.

While we saw a few of the rule changes on display last night, today we will review the key rule changes you need to know when betting on the NFL.

As we’ve mentioned many times before in this newsletter, the NFL is the highest variance sport with the most efficient markets. These rule changes are likely priced in. However, they are essential to know so you don’t make a bad bet mistakenly.

What You Need to Know

First things first, the NFL is encouraging kickoff returns. With touchbacks going to the 35-yard line, teams are incentivized to kick the ball in the landing zone and make a tackle rather than to put it into the end zone.

This makes betting on touchdown props on return players who also have a role in the offense a bit more intriguing. If a player is getting a healthy amount of snaps and target share, and gets 2-4 extra touches on kickoffs, even if it’s slight, their odds to score go up.

This could also lead to more overs.

Speaking of overs, both teams get the ball in Overtime.

If you are a live bettor looking to capitalize, or looking to arb in and out of a position, both teams now have a chance to score touchdowns or more in Overtime.

Those days of betting unders when OT scoring was capped are gone.

Explore the best NFL betting tools for this upcoming season.

Another key area that could actually minimize variance in the NFL is the new replay rule.

We all know the frustration of having action on an NFL game, and the refs come in with an egregious call that either helps you out and all is well, or gives the team you bet against free yards.

Officials in the NFL can now use replay to change the call on the field for penalties, including:

• Roughing the passer

• Intentional grounding

• Tripping

• Roughing the kicker

• Facemasks

• Horse-collar tackles

Say goodbye to the days of a phantom roughing the passer giving your favorite team an extra 15 years. On the flip side, say goodbye to the days of the team you bet against getting an additional 15 yards on a phantom facemask.

The catch? There needs to be a flag thrown on the play for these plays to be reviewed. No flag thrown = no replay review.

So, are those days truly gone?

Penalties like tripping, facemasks, and horse-collars are not subjective. These plays are always “clear and obvious”, so officials will likely never get these wrong now with the new replay reviews - if a flag was thrown.

Roughing the passer or kicker is still up for interpretation. As the former goes, the NFL has not been shy about making almost any contact to a QB deemed “forceable”, but whether or not it is a penalty is still open for interpretation.

These rules are essential to know as they can impact how you bet pre-game and live, but even with these seemingly making it easier for correct calls to be made, the NFL is still the same beast.

Variance will always rule in a game that relies on penalties and turnovers. Betting on the NFL is not for the faint of heart, and since we are all going to do it anyway, we need to be educated on any little thing that could give us an edge.

Let’s Get This Straight

Every week, we dissect a relevant sports betting topic to determine its validity.

Wong Teasers are Dead

If your favorite betting analyst is still pushing Wong teasers, you need to find a better source of information.

Here’s the reality:
They no longer work.

The Wong teaser was a valuable asset for any bettor until rule changes and sportsbook pricing diluted the value.

The concept worked when all things were true. The price of a teaser was -110 to -120, and capturing key numbers was essential.

Rule changes in the NFL, such as pushing back the extra point, have altered the skew of key numbers. With teasers on books like DraftKings being priced at -130,

The Wong teaser is dead.

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