Season Long Player Futures

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Betting on Player Futures

The first NFL pre-season game was last night, and sports bettors and fans alike are excited. The NFL regular season will begin in just over 30 days. The dog days of Summer are dwindling.

With fantasy drafts starting and NFL training camp underway, it’s natural for gamblers to start taking a look at NFL awards markets as well as player futures.

As of the time of writing, sportsbooks have lines available for the over/under on a wide variety of statistics for numerous players.

Most sharps know that typing money up in futures markets is normally a fool's errand. Most recs don’t care and bet them anyway.

If you are going to bet awards or player stat futures, here are some things to consider.

Player Statistic Over & Unders

When you bet on an award market, you are likely getting positive odds. The biggest favorites in the market still have a plus sign next to their names, even if the hold percentage is high and the bet is not necessarily a “good bet.”

Yes, there are alternate lines available at plus money, but a lot of rec bettors focus on taking season-long player props, and, unsurprisingly, most rec bettors look for reasons to bet the over.

Explore all player prop research tools for sports betting.

Betting on the overs in these markets, especially based on training camp hype, coach speak, or preseason performance, is a flawed process, particularly in the NFL.

Why? The nature of the sport.

The NFL is a physically demanding game, and injuries are a common occurrence. Just take a scroll through an account like Underdog NFL, and you will see numerous players who have gone down before pads are even on.

I’m sure a lot of people read that and said to themselves, “obviously”. Well, I’m sure some of the same readers already have exposure in the awards markets or bet an over in the season-long prop markets.

In a sport with such high injury risk, bet more unders. A lot of times, these lines are inflated, and though some lines may look too good to be true, it’s because the probability of a player playing a whole season is nowhere near 100%.

Instead of using gut feeling, “ball knowledge”, beat writer reports, or coach speak to make a bet, start considering what could go wrong. Stop trying to convince yourself why a player should go over their line, and start saying, “What could push this player under this line?”

This small, subtle change in framing could make all the difference. Not saying there is never value in a season-long over, but I am certainly saying to take a look at more unders.

Let’s Get This Straight

Every week, we dissect a relevant sports betting topic to determine its validity.

Projecting NFL Props is Difficult

With the NFL season on the horizon, most bettors are mentally preparing for the season. Many newer bettors are fantasy players, so they are drawn to player props. Many bettors think betting on a player is easier.

Here’s the reality:
Projecting prop lines is difficult as a wide range of outcomes needs to be considered.

When betting player props, especially in the NFL, you often have to guess what humans are thinking.

Of course, there are many other factors at play, but when you break it down, betting on the over or under for a player is largely based on their perceived role, snap count, and usage.

If you are not considering all these things when trying to project props, you are missing the mark.

You may do your analysis and think it’s a great matchup for a player, and you may be expecting their head coach or offensive coordinator to think the same way.

The truth is, unless you have inside info, you have no idea how these coaches are thinking.

Instead of relying on somehow being on the same page as an NFL coach, make sure to build your projections with a cushion on either side of the outcomes. Build a bull and bear case.

This can help you find a median number and stop you from falling into the trap of betting based on gut feeling or on your opinion of what should happen on the field.

Featured Tool Spotlight: Props.Cash

Every week, we highlight one of our featured tools that are making our readers better and more profitable sports bettors.

Props.Cash is a player prop research tool that takes prop research to a deeper level. With advanced stats, filters for customization, line shopping, projections, and more, it’s an elite tool for player prop betting. They have NFL season-long props available.

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What separates Props.Cash from other prop tools is that it empowers users with its clean interface, detailed data, and projection model. The data is actionable, and it looks as clean as can be.

Props.Cash is a staple for player prop bettors, and with the upcoming fall season, now is the time to take advantage.

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