Top Down Betting

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Top Down Betting

Pro sports bettors are (generally) in two distinct groups.

There are top-down sports bettors and bottom-up sports bettors.

Top-down betting is a market-reactive approach. Bettors who employ this strategy examine market trends, line movements, and sharp money to inform their wagers.

Instead of building their own models, top-down bettors follow the signals from the market to guide their betting decisions.

Positive EV betting tools enable top-down bettors to utilize the market to their advantage.

There are still several questions to consider when top-down betting.

What sportsbooks do I devig from? How do I know which market moves to react to? Does this also work with player prop betting?

Let’s take a closer look.

Why Top-Down Betting Works

It’s essential to acknowledge that betting markets are generally efficient. Sportsbooks do not simply assign a price arbitrarily. They have teams of traders and risk managers who are responsible for setting the price.

There is also a phase of price discovery. Sportsbooks open lines early with lower limits and sharp, bottom-up bettors who make their own numbers, attack openers to help shape the line into place.

After a few rounds of betting on a number and the sportsbook moving a line, eventually, the sharps will stop. Oftentimes, lines move too much in one direction, and then sportsbooks readjust the line.

Once this process is over, the line is set, it sits stagnant for a bit, and limits rise.

As you approach game time, the market becomes increasingly efficient. Injury news arrives, “coach speak” hits the media, and sharp originators continue to refine their numbers and place bets.

Some sharp bettors wait for limits to rise before attacking the market so they can maximize their ROI.

Now that we understand how sportsbooks set lines, let’s examine how to capitalize on these line movements using the top-down approach.

How Top-Down Betting Works:

• Market Signals: Top-down bettors track sharp money, which refers to large bets placed by professional bettors. By following these market signals, they can predict where the market is heading.

• Line Movement: Top-down bettors also focus on line movement. If the line shifts drastically, it may indicate that sharp money has influenced the market, signaling a potential betting opportunity.

• Betting the Consensus: Sometimes, top-down bettors align their bets with the market consensus, particularly if they believe the public is overreacting to news or events

This is the essence of top-down betting. Top-down bettors know the market is efficient, especially if it’s a main line bet (spread, total, or moneyline) in a major sporting event.

If you are using a real-time odds tool, you may start to see, all within a few seconds, sharp books like Circa, Pinny, and Bookmaker all move their number in one direction, seemingly at the same time.

This could mean that one or all of those books were hit by a limit bet by a sharp, or that there is significant injury news hitting the market.

If you don’t see the latter, odds are it’s the former.

Respecting the market is crucial for becoming a successful sports bettor. Major market game line bets may never show massive 5%+ EV spots, but those 2% EVs compound over time, especially in major markets with higher limits.

If you don’t have a model, don’t worry, track the market, and find a source of truth.

Let’s Get This Straight

Every week, we dissect a relevant sports betting topic to determine its validity.

Winning on Prediction Markets

Prediction markets are the talk of the town, and for good reason.

They are innovative, and they do offer bettors/traders an open market to capitalize on.

However, they market their products in a way that makes it seem like everyone is winning.

Here’s the reality:
Sports betting and trading are zero-sum games. For every winner, there is a loser.

If you are taking the Chiefs -3.5 on a prediction market or a sportsbook, there needs to be someone willing to take the Jaguars +3.5.

How can both parties win when there is a half-point in the line?

Exactly, they cannot.

While prediction markets provide a ton of advantages in the landscape and are constantly innovating, don’t fall for the “everyone’s a winner here” trap.

For every winner, there is a loser.

Featured Tool Spotlight: Pick The Odds

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Read our full review of Pick The Odds.

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